City A.M. shadow MPC 7-2 against rate hike

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“With robust growth in the third quarter and a mounting pile of evidence that the UK economy is heating up, the Bank’s record-low interest rates aren’t just wrongheaded, but unsafe. The MPC should hike bank rate to 0.75 per cent.”

GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS
“There is no need for any change in quantitative easing or interest rates at present. Nor is any change likely to occur for quite a while.”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“With growth recovering we’re likely to return to pre-recession output levels in 2014. Unemployment may fall more quickly though it will be some time before the Bank’s threshold is hit.”

SAMUEL TOMBS | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Interest rates should remain on hold to reinforce the recovery. Inflationary pressures are easing gradually, unemployment is high and there is little risk of a housing market bubble.”

ROBERT WOOD | BERENBERG BANK
“The economy is recovering strongly as credit gets households out spending. House prices will become a worry over the next year or two, but the first line of defence is to undo Help to Buy.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Hike rates by 0.25 percentage points. Narrow money predicted current economic strength and keeps surging. The pick-up is already generating capacity strains and price pressures.”

VICKY PRYCE | EX-GOVERNMENT ADVISER
“Stronger forecasts for this year are dependent mainly on higher consumer spending, but the recovery is fragile as disposable incomes are squeezed and investment lags behind.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS BANK
“Growth appears to be consolidating at a decent rate but unemployment remains high and downside risks remain, some from global issues. Rates should remain on hold.”

ROSS WALKER | RBS
“I remain in the ‘no change’ camp, but the case for a hike in Bank Rate is building more rapidly than expected given buoyant activity data and inflation stickiness.”