Analyst Views: Has Diageo’s trading update altered your outlook for the group?

 
Kasmira Jefford
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MARTIN DEBOO INVESTEC


“We read the first quarter as a miss... emerging market growth is decelerating – fast – driven by a mix of weak demand and destocking. We re-state our sell case, believing that the valuation needs to adjust to reflect growing pressures in the emerging markets, which are heading for 50 per cent of sales.

WYN ELLIS NUMIS

“US spirits continues to be key with 5.1 per cent organic sales growth. As expected, however, emerging markets are under pressure and foreign exchange is a drag. Management remains committed to delivery of its medium term guidance but we expect consensus to come under some pressure.

IAN SHACKLETON NOMURA


Diageo reported first quarter organic revenues up three per cent versus our consensus of four per cent. The small miss was mainly driven by Africa, eastern Europe & Turkey... we believe that medium-term sales growth guidance of six per cent per year can still be achieved, although we now model five per cent for 2014.