Stephan Shakespeare: M&S and Next are more closely linked than anyone thought

12/05/2008 

THE BRANDINDEX scores for Marks & Spencer are somewhat higher than those of Next — right now M&S is at +42 compared with Next at +20. Over the past two years in which YouGov has been running this daily tracker, the two brands have tended to move up and down fairly harmoniously, although just recently we’ve seen a small relative strengthening for Next.

The graph shows two lines — the change in monthly-average BrandIndex scores normalised at the beginning of last December, and the equivalent for share price. When the line goes up, it means Next is gaining relative to its bigger rival.

Back in January, when M&S announced disappointing figures for Christmas, the share price fell precipitously. Next fell too, but somewhat less. The assumption then was that Next was faring the better of the two. Our research showed a different picture — that the view of consumers was more favourable to M&S.

A few weeks after our study, Next made a gloomy pronouncement that saw its price falling back in line. Meanwhile in politics, we see Labour’s brand — which we do not measure on quite so frequent a basis, as it is market research which is our bread and butter, not government – has been hammered lately. Our most recent poll, for The Sun, gave the Tories a whopping 26 per cent lead. Can it be real?

OVER-REACTION

The numbers are no doubt accurate, but what do they actually mean? One can hardly imagine them being translated into votes. I have a theory (which, fortunately, cannot be proved right or wrong): I think that polls show an over-reaction because many of the people we sample are not interested in politics, but nevertheless feel they ought to give an answer.

And to say whatever you think is currently most socially acceptable. In other words, there’s always a bit of froth that goes with the “buzz” of recent media, but doesn’t necessarily translate into action.

David Cameron is looking increasingly like a future winner, but expect that lead to drop back once we have a switch in the media’s narrative. Such is the desire for a strong story that pollsters sometimes ask a bad question. We try not to, but now and again one slips, and all pollsters are guilty.

Last week there was an example — not by us — which was reported as showing that 55 per cent of Labour voters thought a new leader would help their prospects.

But look at the wording of the actual question: would Labour do better with “a younger, fresher, more charismatic alternative”? Well obviously, if you put it that way.

Stephan Shakespeare is co-founder of YouGov, which produces BrandIndex