Sadiq Khan: London will lose 87,000 jobs under "no-deal" Brexit

 
Helen Cahill
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In October 2016 consultants Oliver Wyman said there could be 75,000 Brexit-related job lossess (Source: Getty)

A "no deal" Brexit could see the loss of 87,000 jobs in London by 2030, according to analysis commissioned by Sadiq Khan and carried out by pro-Remain consultants.

The London mayor has this morning published an analysis of a worst-case Brexit scenario, and what it would mean for the capital. The paper is a response to the government's failure to produce its assessment on how Brexit would impact the economy.

Read more: Sadiq Khan: Give commuter routes to TfL to tackle "terrible service"

The analysis, which was carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, claims that investment into the UK could fall by as much as £50bn.

The sector taking the biggest hit would be financial and professional services, with UK job losses potentially reaching 119,000.

The mayor said the analysis showed the government should keep the UK in the Single Market and the customs union.

Read more: DEBATE: Could the UK really lose 75,000 finance jobs post-Brexit?

“If the government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment," said Khan.

“The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards. Ministers are fast running out of time to turn the negotiations around. A “no deal” hard Brexit is still a very real risk – the worst possible scenario."

The Department for Exiting the European Union said that the government was working to deliver “the best and most ambitious Brexit deal for the whole of the United Kingdom”.

"December's European Council showed that, having made sufficient progress, both sides believe we will achieve an ambitious deal securing prosperity for the UK and EU27,” a spokesperson said.

“The UK wants a deep and special partnership with the European Union, a partnership that spans a new economic relationship and a new relationship on security.”

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, said: “The assessments largely echo what we already know, namely that London’s professional, financial, and creative industries are deeply linked to the EU Single Market. London will no doubt continue to be a global hub for many businesses and industries but this research reiterates the importance of getting clarity on transition and the government’s objectives for a final deal, as soon as possible.”

The report comes after the City of London said job losses in financial services may be lower than previously estimated.

Jeremy Browne, the City of London Corporation's EU envoy, said plans to move jobs out of the UK were becoming less drastic, with large banks and insurers saying they will not abandon London after Brexit.

Consultants Oliver Wyman estimated that the City could face job losses numbering 75,000, but more recently, the Bank of England said it was assuming 10,000 "day one" job losses after March 2019.

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