Christmas consumers face an epic hangover
Britain’s inability to deal with a little snow may have kept shoppers from the high street this week, but Kantar Worldpanel and Nielsen (two of the biggest data firms going) have suggested that despite the weather, we’re gearing up to a cracker of a Christmas for retailers.
For those who like to avoid the crowds, be warned: 22 December is being tipped not just as the biggest shopping day of the year, but “the most successful ever recorded”. According to Kantar we will spend £1.5bn on the Friday and Saturday, while Nielsen estimates we will spend £4.2bn across the final week before the big day.
Some of that is because we are pushing the boat out and spending more on things like premium booze – we’re already £172m up on last year, Kantar says. And who can blame us? After what feels like a lifetime of Brexit will-they-won’t-they negotiations, rubbish weather, consumer sentiment that’s impossible to read, wage stagnation and rising costs, we could all do with a slightly blurry festive season.
Read more: UK inflation hits 3.1 per cent
But while it’s tempting to splurge this side of Christmas, many of the issues putting a dampener on the economy are likely to remain well into the new year. In other words, expect a hangover following the party.
High among those sobering thoughts should be yesterday’s inflation figures. Mark Carney must now write one of his letters to the chancellor explaining why he’s missed his target.
Read more: Bah humbug: Spending fall points to miserly Christmas for retailers
But the Bank of England’s figures were in fact lower than the supermarket rate overall, which is at its highest for more than four years. You’re paying 3.6 per cent more for your groceries – including all that posh plonk – than you were this time last year.
As we enter 2018, it might be time to admit that the period of low inflation and low interest rates that we have enjoyed – without, apparently having all that much fun – is coming to an end. What that means for the already vulnerable housing market, or for the survival of long-suffering businesses large and small, is pretty obvious, even when you’ve had a drink or two.
The hangover from 2017 could be brutal. Don’t forget to stock up on painkillers.
Read more: Retail prices continue downwards trend despite cost pressures for firms