Labour’s Ed Balls proved to be the most high-profile loser of the 2015 General Election in Yorkshire and the Humber, losing his Morley and Outwood seat to Tory Andrea Jenkyns.
Polling for the 2017 General Election suggests the Tories could gain a few more Labour seats this time around.
YouGov data gathered between late April and early May shows the Conservative party has claimed a 43 per cent voting intention, up from 33 per cent in 2015.
Labour’s score has dropped one percentage point to 38 and the Lib Dems’ has increased from seven to nine per cent. Ukip is a big loser in the polling data, dropping from 16 per cent to seven per cent.
Electoral Calculus has selected four constituencies across the region where it predicts changes.
In West Yorkshire, the Tories are expected to take Dewsbury (where the 2015 result was declared at 4.30am in 2015), Halifax (5.30am) and Wakefield (5am), where Mary Creagh, the Labour chair of the Environmental Audit Committee, could make a high-profile departee. In the Humber, Electoral Calculus predicts Nic Dakin will lose his Scunthorpe (4.30am) seat to the Tories.
In return, Labour would enjoy winning the Morley and Outwood (4.30am) seat back from the Conservatives; Balls only lost out by 422 votes in 2015.
Other ones to watch: Doncaster Central and Doncaster North (4am), Sheffield constituencies (4.30am), Leeds constituencies (4.30am), Bradford constituencies (5am).