Second Scottish referendum: Bookies already have betting odds on the date and result - as well as the next region to vote for independence

Emma Haslett
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Scottish Referendum Campaigning Enters The Final Stages
Aye or nae - bookies reckon the next vote will happen after 2020 (Source: Getty)

The second Scottish referendum is odds-on to take place after 2020, bookies said today, after first minister Nicola Sturgeon announced she will seek permission to hold another independence vote.

Paddy Power said it was 5/6 the vote will be held in 2020 or later, putting the chances of it happening this year at 50/1. Although it has emerged Sturgeon's preferred timeframe is some time between the fourth quarter of next year and the first quarter of 2019, the bookie put both those periods at 7/1.

William Hill offered a 4/6 chance it will happen before the end of 2020 - and a 2/9 chance it'll happen before the end of 2024.

Meanwhile, despite scepticism from analysts, Paddy Power put the referendum at 2/5 to pass, and 13/8 to fail, while William Hill gave the odds of a Leave vote 4/6, while Remain are 11/10.

"Despite Nicola Sturgeon’s calls this morning, we’re still odds-on that any Scottish Referendum won’t happen before 2020," said a spokesperson for Paddy Power.

“Whenever it does come, it seems pretty likely that it’ll pass – though the early money from our punters is on it failing. Hardly the vote of confidence Sturgeon will have wanted.”

Read more: How five City analysts reacted to Sturgeon's announcement of a second Scottish referendum

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