What will happen to sterling against the US dollar when Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50? We asked the experts

 
Jasper Jolly
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Prime Minister Theresa May wants to trigger Article 50 soon (Source: Getty)

Currency traders are on tenterhooks, awaiting the biggest set-piece event in this year's political calendar: the moment Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 tomorrow.

The act of triggering Article 50 (part of the Lisbon Treaty) tomorrow will officially start the process of the UK leaving the EU, the topic which has dominated sterling’s prospects since 23 June.

Read more: Article 50: Here's what will actually happen tomorrow

Earlier this month hit its lowest point since January as the House of Lords debated amendments to the Article 50 bill. Its last visit below $1.22 against the US dollar came before May announced the UK will leave the EU’s Single Market, although it has since recovered - this afternoon it was trading at $1.2533.

Yet the consensus is that the triggering of Article 50 itself will not be the shock event that the past few months might imply.

Appropriate pricing

Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, says: “The actual triggering of Article 50 is not going to be the cause of some calamitous movement.”

Some volatility is to be expected, as around any big political event. The pound could make a knee-jerk movement as the Prime Minister Theresa May announces she has notified the EU of the UK’s decision to leave, followed by some profit taking, Lawler says.

It is difficult for an event which will be so heavily choreographed to come as a shock to markets, says Connor Campbell, analyst at SpreadEx.

Indeed, the start of the official negotiation process (rather than the current cross-continental shadow boxing) could mark less sensitivity in the currency to every last utterance of obscure European politicians.

Hot blood

However, more important than the actual triggering could be the response of European politicians over the next days, weeks and months.

Chris Beauchamp, an analyst at IG, warns “we could get a more dramatic response from the EU than expected”, depending to a certain extent on the manner in which it is announced.

Joel Kruger, foreign exchange strategist at LMAX Exchange, says: “Once we trigger there’s going to be a lot of hot blood between the UK and the EU.”

Any indication by EU politicians that a deal between the UK and the EU could be hard to reach will definitely affect investor sentiment, says Kruger, but so far “there’s no new issue that hasn’t emerged since the Brexit analysis before the vote”. Risks of the pound falling below $1.15 are low at this point, he says.

What the trigger will do, however, is firm up plans, with a definite negotiation period and the prospect of a rollercoaster late 2018.

Chris Bailey, European strategist at Raymond James, adds: “Article 50 is only the prelude to the real travelling and arriving” for the journey out of the EU.

Long-term

Over the longer term investor judgements of the pound’s value will continue to hinge on the prospects for the UK’s trading relationships around the world.

“If we start to see a softer type of Brexit the pound will recover,” says Kruger.

“Longer-term, the valuations are attractive for the pound.”

If a trade deal doesn’t collapse over the next two years sterling could see a further recovery, says Bailey, with a “fair value” of $1.35 to the pound – a level last seen in June.

Article 50: What you need to know

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