Going by past trends, Trump's inauguration could mean bad things for markets

Emma Haslett
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It's just two days until Donald Trump is inaugurated as 45th President of the United States - but the bad news is, his arrival might not be great for markets.

Research by AJ Bell has found markets tend to fall in the first year of Republican Presidencies, while Democrats send the market higher.

According to the findings, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls by an average of 1.2 per cent in the first year of a Republican Presidency - while it rises 13.2 per cent in the first year after a Democrat enters the Whitehouse.

Richard Nixon was the Republican with the worst first year, with the Dow falling 15.2 per cent in the his first year, and 16.6 per cent in the first year of his second term.

However, it was a Democrat who pushed the markets down by the most in their first term - when Jimmy Carter entered office, the Dow fell 17.3 per cent.

And the first year of Republican Ronald Reagan's second term in office coincided with the largest rise of the Dow - share rose 27.7 per cent. That's followed by Barack Obama's second term - shares rose 26.5 per cent in the first year.

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“Global share prices have been on a tear since Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s US election, buoyed by hopes that his plans to cut taxes, push for deregulation and increase infrastructure spending will fuel growth and inflation, replicating what many see as a market-friendly package of reforms to match that launched by Ronald Reagan after his 1980 triumph over Jimmy Carter," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“However, investors might like to consider that the Dow Jones Industrials initially ran up strongly on the news of Reagan’s November 1980 victory only to completely lose momentum after his inauguration on 20 January 1981, in a classic case of “buy on the rumour, sell on the fact”.

Read more: Trump’s unhappy fate: To oversee a financial crisis far worse than the last

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