Jeremy Corbyn's only hope of power may be in an SNP coalition, Labour group warns

 
Mark Sands
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The Conservatives used the threat of a Labour-SNP coalition as a key party of their 2015 campaign (Source: Getty)

Labour's only hope of power may be to form a coalition with the likes of the Scottish National Party, a leading left-wing group has warned.

A report from the Fabian Society this morning has claimed that the party is on track to drop below 200 seats in the House of Commons for the first time since 1935.

A Labour majority government under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn is “currently unthinkable” the group said.

However, it added that Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems could secure a shared majority if they were collectively able to win 30 new seats, but not from each other.

Read More: Labour's polling has slumped to a new low in the latest figures

Although there are only three seats in Scotland not held by the SNP, and two of these belong to Labour and Lib Dem MPs, a huge proportion of these constituencies would need to be secured in England and Wales by Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron's parties.

“It is much more plausible to imagine a group of anti-Conservative parties securing sufficient votes to form a governing alliance than for Labour to govern alone – although even this would still require a very large reversal in Labour’s present fortunes,” the report said.

It represents a dramatic shift in the thinking among Labour groups – the threat of an SNP coalition with Ed Miliband's Labour has been credited as one of the key reasons behind the Conservative victory in 2015.

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It also follows suggestions from some Labour MPs that the party should not contest a by-election in Richmond Park, in order to increase the chances of a defeat for former Conservative Zac Goldsmith.

However, it wasn't all bad news - the Fabian Society downplayed the prospect of Labour losing seats to Ukip in the North of England.

Since the 2015 election, the group claims Labour has lost more votes to the Lib Dems and the Conservatives than Ukip, with the threat from the Eurosceptic party branded as “exaggerated”.

Read More: New Ukip leader puts Burnham's constituency in crosshairs

“Ukip has lost twice as many votes to the Tories as it has gained from Labour. This suggests that Ukip will be unable to mount a serious challenge to Labour in more than a handful of seats (where shifts in local voting intentions deviate sharply from the national pattern),” the Fabian Society report said.

However, it added: “The grim reality is that Labour is losing votes to all the major parties; while the Tories are gaining support from them all.

“In Labour-Conservative marginal seats this will translate into widespread losses for Labour, even though the party is losing relatively few votes directly to the Tories.”

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