The FTSE 250 firm, which owns a majority stake in Govia, said its rail division full-year results would miss expectations.
While revenue on London Midland and Southeastern is expected to grow by 2.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively, GTR – operating the Govia Thameslink, Southern rail and Great Northern lines – passenger revenues will flop by four per cent. Go-Ahead said:
GTR services continue to be heavily impacted by industrial action. Discussions with the department for transport (DfT) regarding our contractual claims relating to the RMT industrial action are ongoing... Subsequent claims in respect of the Aslef action will be submitted to the DfT.
We expect to incur additional costs in this financial year.
So why are the shares up?
The simple answer is Go-Ahead's financial performance is pretty much immune to reductions in passengers on the Govia network.
So if less people are able to travel due to extensive industrial action, for example, Govia's revenues aren't impacted. The revenue numbers disclosed are simply for comparative purposes, company sources told City A.M.
What do the analysts think?
Gert Zonneveld of Canaccord said the Southern rail debacle was only a small part of a well-performing company. Moreover, he was confident the issues will be solved in the New Year.
Investor sentiment continues to be impacted by the GTR issues, overshadowing good performances elsewhere.
We expect the performance issues to gradually improve going forward as new trains are introduced, driver shortages are addressed, the London Bridge redevelopment progresses and industrial relations improve.
Broadly speaking, Gerald Khoo of Liberum agreed, but warned there remains a danger the DfT could strip Govia of the Southern rail franchise.
We expect sentiment towards the company to remain adverse until there is a resolution to the Southern Rail dispute.
In particular, although we believe the government remains supportive of the group, there remains the risk that the political winds may change in a way that puts the group's continued operation of the franchise in jeopardy.