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Investors turn bearish on global business cycle amid uncertainty

Billy Bambrough
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The increasingly close US election has been suggested as a reason for the rising uncertainty
The increasingly close US election has been suggested as a reason for the rising uncertainty (Source: Getty)

Rising uncertainty has led to investors feeling less confident about the global business cycle.

Those expecting global equities to rise has dropped to under half (47 per cent), down from 70 per cent just under two years ago, according to the latest Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) survey.

Respondents think there is a 41 per cent probability that business confidence will be higher a year from now, down 10 percentage points from June.

The White house race has been suggested as a possible trigger for falling confidence. The Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has seen her lead eroded by the Republican candidate Donald Trump.

“Investors have retreated from the market views they held only three months ago. This capitulation may reflect the growing speculation about policy regime change, possibly triggered by the upcoming US election,” said ASR’s David Bowers.

“They have greater confidence in their macro calls however. They have turned bearish on the cycle, but they do not expect a global recession or a hard landing in China.”

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