US Presidential Election 2016: Would a Donald Trump presidency lead to a stronger US dollar?

Jake Cordell
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Donald Trump banknote
Would Donald Trump boost the value of the US dollar? (Source: Getty)

Currency analysts have suggested a Donald Trump presidency could cause the US dollar to strengthen.

A Trump victory in November's election is expected to spook investors around the world, leading to an exodus from emerging markets and into safer assets, such as the US dollar and Japanese yen, analysts at Societe Generale and Nordic bank SEB.

"A Trump victory would boost global uncertainty," Societe Generale said in a note to clients, adding this was "not necessarily a bad thing for the dollar."

Read more: Now the Federal Reserve catches the ire of Donald Trump

Moreover, if the Republican candidate is able to carry out his programme of infrastructure spending and tax cuts, the extra, unfunded spending could set off a chain of events that forces the US Federal Reserve to hike rates to keep inflation in check, also strengthening the dollar.

Currencies in countries such as Mexico and other emerging markets closely linked to the US are expected to suffer in the event of a Trump victory, with the Mexican peso already swinging back-and-forth in relation to opinion polls.

However, Kit Juckes at Societe Generale and Kully Samra at brokers Charles Schwab both played down the chances of Trump being given a free pass by the powerful US Congress. Republicans currently control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, though polls point to the Democrats regaining control of the upper house, which should act as a brake on the more controversial elements of Trump's agenda.