Will September be a particularly cruel month for investors?

A trader (c) on the New York Stock Excha
October is better known as the month of market crashes (Source: Getty)

David Buik, market commentator at Panmure Gordon, says Yes.

As a committed Brexiteer, it is imperative to be eternally optimistic, particularly in the face of hysterical Remain financial forecasting which emanated from the establishment, encouraged by a slew of eminent economists. After Brexit, further quantitative easing and a rate cut were quickly introduced, which resulted in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 swiftly erasing their losses, with the latter adding 13.9 per cent in value since 24 June. In fairness, sterling has lost a similar amount against the dollar in the same period. A protracted rally, with markets likely to rely on M&A activity for momentum rather than earnings growth, could have a limited tenure, however. Though in the long term I remain fairly bullish about UK equities, September is likely to see a measurable “pullback” due to political inertia created by Brexit instability, resulting in uncertainty, which markets don't cope with. Also they could suffer from deteriorating economic data – although it will almost certainly be a temporary phenomenon.

Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart & Co, says No.

We think markets have been cruel for a long time now and September is unlikely to be different. The fundamental problem may be the slowdown in global growth but the major central banks are compounding the damage with reckless and unsuccessful measures to counter it. The most obvious victims are traditional long-term bond investors who are being forced to choose between miserly or negative returns and riskier alternatives. As a result, equity investors are increasingly exposed to prices artificially boosted by central banks’ pursuit of higher inflation and trickle-down wealth effects. We say “artificially” because there just is not enough growth to keep boosting corporate revenues, profits or dividends in either developed or emerging markets. Since last December our clients have increasingly opted for short-term trading of larger liquid stocks in the US and Europe. They can get out quickly no matter what horrors September throws at them and have a chance of adding to their gains if it turns out benign.

City A.M.'s opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking views and debate. These views are not necessarily shared by City A.M.

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