Political betting: This week's big movers

James Nickerson
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Could Trump trump Clinton? Bookies aren't convinced, yet (Source: Getty)

The referendum is over, Theresa May is Prime Minister, Donald Trump is officially the Republican presidential candidate, and Corbyn looks set to retain his place at the helm of the Labour party.

So, all in all, a few question marks have been, or are likely to be, resolved soon.

But that hasn't stopped the political betting market shifting. Here are this week's biggest movers.


The wonks at Labrokes think Jeremy Corbyn is becoming more and more likely win the leadership election. His odds have shifted from 1/3 to 1/6.

Over at Betway, Corbyn's odds have shortened to 1/6 from 2/7.

He's up against Owen Smith, a Welsh MP who claims he can unite the party. He has correspondingly drifted from to 4/1 from 9/4

Things have already become quite tense within the party, which is essentially in an open civil war.

Corbyn's hoping he can unite the party if he wins. It's not just the odds that favour him, but the polls too.

US Presidential Election

Over in the US it's been quite the week. Donald Trump has got the Republican nomination, but not everyone is happy about that - former rival Ted Cruz, essentially the whole Bush family and former candidate Mitt Romney are not endorsing him.

Hillary Clinton, still the presumptive candidate until it is officially announced, is still the hot favourite and apparently the smart money is on her.

The problem here is that neither candidate is particularly popular - in fact, that's an understatement; they are extremely disliked by much of the population.

Still, Ladbrokes thinks Trump is marginally more likely to win. His odds have shifted from 9/4 to 15/8.

Contrast that to Betway, where Trump is weak in the market, offered at 2/1 from 7/4. All the money for Clinton, pushing her to 7/20 from 2/5.


The former London mayor had his eyes on a much bigger prize, but his chances of premiership were dashed when he was (it is thought) stabbed in the back by Michael Gove, who now sits on the backbences (he's not quite Machiavellian enough, it seems).

But Boris won't be too disheartened; he's now the UK's top diplomat and has been busy at work since his appointment by Theresa May - who basically came in strong and made her mark with a number of sackings of high ranking Cabinet members.

But I digress. Boris, aside from being overjoyed at his appointment, is favourite to be the next prime minister. If we assume that May will serve a full term, that also implicitly indicates that Labour will lose the next election.

Boris' odds are offered at 7/1 by Ladbrokes, a shortened offer from the 10/1 odds that he was previously assigned.

Meanwhile, Betway suggests he'll be next Tory leader, offering 7/2. Former chancellor George Osborne is behind at 4/1.


With all the drama it may have been forgotten that France is going to have an election next year.

They run in a semi-presidential system, meaning that their president and parliament are elected separately. It's not quite a presidential system, like the US, because there is also a Prime Minister (the idea is to balance the power more).

In France, they have a similar - albeit generally considered more extreme - political party to Ukip (which I'll come on to), called the Front National.

Its leader Marine Le Pen has become popular over the years (she took over from her dad, who founded the party). Problems with immigration, terror and general disillusionment are pushing votes towards her.

So next year, they'll have an election. The top two candidates, given no one wins an outright majority, progress into a run off.

Le Pen may well be in the running. Ladbrokes is offering odds on her at 7/2, down from 5/1.


It is official: Nigel Farage has stepped down from the leadership of the party of which he became somewhat of a cult figure.

Speculation is that he may have wanted a position working on negotiations with Europe for Brexit - it may just be he fancies a rest after campaigning for near-on 20 years for the UK's accession from the EU.

Now he's left, though, there's somewhat of a power vacuum in the party. Some wonder what its purpose will be now people have voted for Brexit, and if it can transform itself into a political force in the new political atmosphere.

That will be a job for its next leader.

Ladbrokes reckons Steven Woolfe will take it, offering odds on him at 1/6, down from 1/3. He's a current Member of the European Parliament, but will obviously soon be out of a job. He's also a barrister. Currently, he's also the party's frontbench spokesman on migration and financial affairs.

Betway appears to agree, offering him at 1/10, with his closest competitor at 10/1 - that's Diane James.

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