US Presidential Election 2016: Nate Silver thinks Donald Trump has just 20-25 per cent chance of beating Hillary Clinton

 
James Nickerson
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Silver has a strong track record in predicting election outcomes (Source: Getty)

Polling wonder-kid Nate Silver reckons Donald Trump has just a 20-25 per cent chance of winning the US presidential election.

Silver, who in 2012 correctly predicted the outcome in every state, said Clinton's chances of taking the White House are correspondingly 75-80 per cent.

On the website FiveThirtyEight, two forecasts were revealed: the first just based on polls, the second taking account of economic circumstances and historical data.

Read more: Clinton's campaign wallet dwarfs Trump's

Though cynics will point out that Silver failed to get the UK general election correct, that'll still be worrying for Trump, given Silver in 2008 also predicted 49 of 50 states correctly.

Silver also failed to predict that Trump would become the Republican nominee.

RealClearPolitics, which analyses all polls currently has Clinton ahead. However, over the last year Trump has come close.


Clinton is still favourite to take the White House (Source: RealClearPolitics)

For those who prefer to take their direction from betting markets, SmartBets has also come up with an indicative probability of success for each candidate, based on odds from UK bookies.


Punters heavily back Clinton (Source: SmartBets)

With Clinton having raised far more money, and concerns still lingering in the Republican establishment about Trump's ability to appeal to wide cross-section of society, those odds may worsen yet.

However, with even Silver failing to predict the rise of Trump, it could be unwise to cast him aside just yet.

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