Wales can book their place in the last 16 by beating Russia in Toulouse on Monday evening.
In fact, even a draw should be good enough for Chris Coleman’s men to prolong their stay in the tournament.
Only a last-gasp Daniel Sturridge winner prevented them from earning a point against England last Thursday and it could well be that bookmakers have underrated their chances against a disappointing Russian side.
The Russians have to win to keep any hopes alive and that’s most likely the reason they are a best-priced 13/8 with Betway to take all three points.
Yet, the reality is that they have been poor so far during this competition.
Having finished second to Austria in qualifying, they began with a point against England, although they were outplayed throughout the match.
They then offered precious little against Slovakia, tamely losing 2-1 in a match they were expected to win.
Coach Leonid Slutski may well now make changes to his line-up having started with the same 11 for the last two games, but that shouldn’t scare the Welsh who look value at a best-priced 21/10 to march on with a victory.
They soaked up plenty of pressure against England and I’m expecting a similarly defensive set-up this evening.
The Russians may not be able to break through a solid Welsh back-line and for that reason I fancy a sell of total match goals at 2.2 with Sporting Index.
The game could easily finish goalless, but I think the Welsh can nick it late on as the Russians gamble and commit numbers forward in a bid to reach the knockout stages.
I wouldn’t put you off backing a 1-0 Welsh victory at 15/2 and Gareth Bale also makes plenty of appeal as the match’s first goalscorer at 4/1.
However, I’ll keep it simple and stick to a low scoring Welsh victory.
Wales 21/10 (general)
Wales to win and under 2.5 goals 4/1 (general)
Sell total goals 2.2 (Sporting Index)