EU Referendum: Brexit "more likely" than the Conservatives' majority in the 2015 general election, according to new research

Edith Hancock
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UK General Election 2015 - UK Politics Through A Washington Lens
There's more chance of a Brexit than there was of David Cameron becoming Prime Minister last year (Source: Getty)

The Remain camp may still be the bookies' favourite as the EU referendum looms, but economic consultants have warned that Brexit could now be on the cards.

Right now, Brexit is far more likely than the Conservatives winning a majority at the 2015 general election, which they very much did, according to consultancy Oxera.

The latest market data gives an implied chance of Britain leaving the European Union of just over four in 10, but the Tories had just a one in eight chance of winning an outright majority with nine days to go before the 2015 election.

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Oracles at the finance firm say that Britain voting to leave the EU is about as likely as Donald Trump receiving the Republican nomination nine days before the Iowa caucus. Trump also had a four in 10 chance of becoming the right-wing candidate, and secured his nomination last month.

Not surprisingly, an Out vote is far more likely than England winning this year's European Championships. The Lions currently stand at 10/1, but there's a 42 per cent chance of a brexit next week.

With just over a week to go before the nation decides, Oxera's senior staff say that the nine-days ahead of a big vote are the most crucial.

Oxera partner Robin Noble said: "The odds can move substantially as the critical date draws closer, particularly within 10-20 days. In the case of the Scotland independence referendum, the sudden surge in support for independence was arrested by a new proposal put forward by the UK government."

Read more: Who in the City should actually be worried about Brexit?

"Which dynamics will play out in the case of Brexit is yet to be seen. However, it is clear that the next nine days will be critical to the outcome. Some reports suggest 13 per cent of voters will make their mind up between now and the referendum. The movement in betting markets is unpredictable, and the ultimate outcome of the referendum, even more so."

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