Sajid Javid: Brexit warnings are "not a conspiracy" - it will cost 500,000 UK jobs

Catherine Neilan
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Leaving the EU will cause the UK to enter recession - even in the most cautious model - a Treasury report will claim (Source: Getty)

Leaving the European Union would cost the UK economy 500,000 jobs, a new Treasury report will say today, according to Sajid Javid.

Speaking on Radio 4's The Today Programme, the business secretary warned of an "immediate and profound" economic shock in the event of a Brexit.

"The Bank of England, the IMF, the OECD, the London School of Economics, the OBR, the IFS: Every one of our allies, every one of our trading partners [are warning against Brexit]," he said this morning. "That is not a conspiracy, that's a consensus."

His comments come as the Treasury is due to release another report looking at the impact of leaving the European Union today - exactly one month before voters go to the polls.

The report warns of two scenarios over the next two years: a more cautious one, in which the UK is able to secure a bilateral trade agreement with the EU, in which GDP will drop by 3.6 per cent and push the country into recession.

In this instance, there would also be a sharp rise in inflation and house price growth would be hit by as much as 10 per cent.

The second forecast predicts that if the UK left the single market defaulted to WTO membership it would lead to a more "severe shock", in which GDP would fall by six per cent, with a hit to house price growth of 18 per cent.

Launching the report later today, chancellor George Osborne is expected to ask voters: “Does Britain really want this DIY recession?”

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