Fixed income managers do not expect the UK to leave the European Union, according to a new survey by Aviva Investors.
When asked about the prospects of a Brexit later this year, the firm’s 20 fixed income managers unanimously predicted that the UK would remain in the EU for at least another two years.
This contrasts with a separate Aviva survey of equity managers, which found that 20 per cent predicted a Brexit before the end of 2017.
“A very rare unanimous response was received - 100 per cent of managers do not expect a Brexit,” said Ian Aylward, head of multi-manager research at Aviva Investors. “This is very different to what public opinion polls would suggest.”
Prime Minister David Cameron has promised that a referendum on EU membership will take place by the end of 2017, but a date has yet to be set.
Aviva’s fixed income managers manage a combined total of £2 trillion in assets under management. Every year, the Aviva Investors Multi-Manager Survey asks managers about their views on the market, as well as any significant macro-economic factors which may affect their portfolios.
This year’s survey also found that the managers were generally downbeat on potential returns, with 68 per cent of managers predicting corporate bond returns of between zero and three per cent this year, and 15 per cent expecting negative returns.