Bank of England: No UK interest rate rise under present conditions until 2017

Billy Bambrough
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Mark Carney surprised Bank of England watches with his dovish November report (Source: Getty)

If global market conditions remain as they are we are unlikely to see an interest rate rise in the UK until spring 2017, according to the latest inflation report from the Bank of England (BoE).

The pound fell sharply on the news, and at pixel time was trading at 1.526 against the dollar.

The BoE said since the last inflation report in August the "path for interest rates rises implied by the market rates has fallen by around 40 basis points".

This means that it is now predicted to reach 0.75% in the second quarter of 2017, instead of the third quarter of 2016 that had previously been expected.

In the November inflation report the Bank points to the global economy, the price of commodities and inflation as reasons for the set back, though if these pick up then we may see a rate rise some time in 2016.

In its inflation report the bank said that over the past three months there had been “increased concerns about downside risk”, both in the UK and the US economies.

This puts the BoE at odds with US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen who yesterday said the “downside risks” to the US economy from global economic and financial developments had diminished since September.

Investment director at AJ Bell, Russ Mould, told City AM:

If the Fed does tighten, it could take some of the pressure off the pound and leave Governor Carney with some more scope for increasing rates here in the UK in 2016, but he seems to be in no rush.

It could also make life a lot easier for the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, who will no doubt welcome some weakness in the euro and yen, while inaction in the US and UK could raise the pressure in Frankfurt and Tokyo for a further loosening of policy.

The governor of the BoE Mark Carney opened his “Super Thursday” press conference, following the announcement to hold interest rates at 0.5 per cent; minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and the quarterly inflation report, with the ominous opening to the Guy Fawkes rhyme “Remember, remember the 5th of November.”

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