Pipe’s Low Key approach will pay off in Ces

 
Bill Esdaile
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Last year, Big Easy (right), was the seventh Cesarewitch winner in the past 15 years for National Hunt trainers
Finding the winner of tomorrow’s 34-runner Cesarewitch (3.50pm) is no easy task when you consider that in the last seven years alone we have had two 66/1 winners and a 50/1 shot thrown in for good measure.
National Hunt trainers have saddled seven of the last 15 winners and the Pipe family have been responsible for two of those.
Heros Fatal (2000) and Miss Fara (2002) were both sent out by the legendary Martin, while his son David went very close with runner-up Mamlook back in 2009.
David runs the hugely unexposed LOW KEY, who was ultra-impressive when scooting clear of his field in the Cesarewitch trial over course and distance last month. In his favour, he only has a 4lb penalty to contend with tomorrow.
He has now won both starts on the Flat for the yard and still has great potential on the level, having won twice over hurdles recently too. Pretty much ticking all the boxes, he can be backed each-way at 7/1 with Betway.
I’m not totally convinced Tony Martin’s Quick Jack stays a strongly run 18 furlongs and he could certainly appreciate more cut in the ground.
In fact, I fancy his other runner Heartbreak City more. He was impressive at York in August and could be the one to give my selection the most to do. Like Low Key, he looks ahead of the handicapper.
The hugely anticipated clash between Emotionless and Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst Stakes (3.10pm) now looks set to go ahead and it’s hard to confidently side with one over the other.
The former was brilliantly impressive at Doncaster last time, winning in the style of a very good horse and is even-money favourite with Betway.
However, Air Force Blue is a dual Group One winner and will be tough to beat. A race to watch and savour.
Ibn Malik was no match for Emotionless in the Champagne Stakes last time, but will be a warm order to bounce back in the Autumn Stakes (2.35pm).
The pair drew seven lengths clear of the third that day and there is no getting away from the fact that Charlie Hills’ colt is smart.
Yet, I’m prepared to take a chance on Jim Bolger’s once-raced CLEAR CUT who may only have finished second in a maiden but will relish the step up to a mile.
The added presence of Gifted Master and Aidan O’Brien’s Beacon Rock means my selection may well be a decent price and Bolger doesn’t normally send them over to make up the numbers.
Finally, tomorrow’s best bet may well be in-form trainer James Fanshawe’s HORS DE COMBAT in the Darley Stakes (5.35pm).
The son of Mount Nelson looks the standout pick for the Group Three prize, having caught my eye in a slowly run affair at Haydock last month.
The gaps never opened for him that day and he would have certainly finished closer granted a trouble-free passage.
He boasts impressive form figures at Newmarket (1132) and looks well worth a step up to nine furlongs now with his stable in such good form (Fanshawe has won with eight of his last 15 runners).
POINTERS
Clear Cut e/w 2.35pm Newmarket
Low Key e/w 3.50pm Newmarket
Hors De Combat e/w 5.35pm Newmarket

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