Sometimes the price alone is enough to make a bet worth placing.
That’s the case when top-of-the-table Manchester United – 11/4 shots with Sportingbet – head to the Emirates on Sunday.
It helps that they are unbeaten there in over four years, of course.
They won 2-1 in November last season, drew on both of their two visits before that, and also prevailed 2-1 in north London during the 2012/13 campaign.
Arsenal’s own 2-1 victory, at Old Trafford in the FA Cup last season, is their only one in nine attempts in all competitions, stretching back to the 8-2 drubbing in August 2011.
Since Arsenal last lifted the Premier League in 2004, United have a 56% head-to-head win rate from the 30 contests.
Home advantage means the bookmakers have installed the Gunners as even money favourites, but their erratic form in front of their increasingly fed up fans puts me off backing them.
They lost at Ashburton Grove to West Ham on the opening day, dropped points against Liverpool when the Reds were in town and, most recently, suffered a 3-2 reverse against Olympiacos on Tuesday.
Their last four home matches in the 2014/15 campaign produced stalemates against Chelsea and Sunderland and a defeat to Swansea.
They could only see off West Brom in that spell, meaning that the Islington faithful have only witnessed two triumphs in eight attempts – the other came versus Stoke.
No wonder fans who are charged up to £2,000 for a season ticket are demanding more for their money.
In contrast, United come into this game on the back of four straight triumphs after beating Wolfsburg 2-1 in the Champions League on Wednesday.
If they manage one more it will be Louis van Gaal’s second-best run since taking charge.
Even if you aren’t quite as confident as I am about United’s prospects, as long as they don’t lose there is money to be made from selling Arsenal’s supremacy at 0.35 with Sporting Index.