Jeremy Corbyn's leadership: Who will be the first Labour MP to defect - and which party will they move to?

 
Catherine Neilan
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Don't look down: Who will jump ship first? (Source: Getty)

It's still the first week of Jeremy Corbyn's life as Labour leader, but the honeymoon period is definitely over.


It's no secret that he's been upsetting the media - not least when journalists get hospitalised while reporting on him - and the same thing seems to be happening with his own party members.

Pundits and betting fans alike are now watching to see who will be the first to jump ship - and which party they will defect to?

Ladbrokes has run the figures for City A.M. and Rochdale MP Simon Danczuk - who this week challenged Corbyn over his refusal to rule out wearing a white poppy at Remembrance Sunday in November - is favourite to leave first, with odds of 4/1.

Next up is Barrow and Furness MP John Woodcock, with odds of 5/1. Birmingham Hodge Hill's Liam Byrne has been identified as the third most-likely to leave, with odds of 8/1.


But money is also going on some of Labour's more high profile - and identifiably New Labour - MPs. Leadership rivals Liz Kendall and Yvette Cooper are both thought likely defectors, as is former shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna, who resigned within hours of Corbyn's win. Tristram Hunt and Kate Hoey are also on the list.

Here's how the odds stack up for the first Labour MP out the door:

Which MP will leave Labour first?odds
Simon Danczuk4/1
John Woodcock5/1
Liam Byrne8/1
Ivan Lewis10/1
Liz Kendall16/1
Gisela Stuart16/1
Kate Hoey16/1
Tristram Hunt20/1
Jamie Reed20/1
Frank Field20/1
Chris Leslie33/1
Chuka Umunna50/1
Yvette Cooper50/1


And where will they go? Betters are so confident that the Liberal Democrats will snare the first MP that odds have risen to 1/2.
The odds of the first defection being to Ukip or the Conservatives stand at 4/1 each, while Greens have 10/1 odds of being the first. But either way, people are definitely expecting someone to hit the ejector button - the odds of someone leaving Labour this year are 1/3.
Ladbrokes' Alex Donohue told City A.M: "We'd never previously offered this market so the fact that we now have an extensive list of betting options to cater for the demand tells its own story.
"As the betting begins it looks like the Lib Dems are highly likely to be the beneficiaries of any defection but we'll be watching the Conservative odds closely too."
There's good reason to think it might be a move to the centre, rather than the right, which we will see first.
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has admitted in an interview with The Times that "some" well-known Labour figures had been among those to contact him in distress about Corbyn's leadership. His election gave Liberal Democrats - who were eviscerated in the General Election, dropping from 57 seats to just eight - a "quite staggering opportunity" to occupy the centre ground.

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