Greek referendum "no" vote: What the analysts say

 
Jessica Morris
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Greece's Interior ministry thinks the "no" vote will be 60 per cent (Source: Getty)

As Greece inches towards a historic "no" vote against austerity measures such as VAT rises and pension cuts, analysts are already reacting to the potential victory for Tsipras and co.

With three hours since the polls closed, and over half of the votes have been counted, so far 61.26 per cent voted "no" and 38.74 per cent voted "yes".

Read more: Half of votes counted and "no" vote leads

And earlier this evening the Interior Ministry released an official projection predicting that 60 per cent of voters had ticked the "no" box on their ballot paper.

Andy Scott, associate director of FX advisory services at foreign currency specialists, HiFX has said that the euro will fall when Asian markets open.

With indications that Greeks have voted "no" in the referendum, the country looks set to be plunged into grave financial uncertainty.

Greece's stay of execution may at last be over and it will be forced to reintroduce a national currency.

The short term impact for the euro is likely to be a fall across the board when markets begin trading in Australasia later on this evening, though since it won't come as a complete surprise, the damage may be limited slightly to just a couple of percentage points.

Kathleen Brooks, director of research at Forex.com, said that a "no" vote would increase the cash-strapped countries risk of default.

A win for the no camp also makes negotiations with Greece's creditors substantially harder, and thus, it cannot be assumed that Greece will get any more money from the European Union, European Central Bank or International Monetary Fund.

This makes further defaults, including on some large sums owed to the ECB later this month, even more likely.

Overall, those who thought the chances of Grexit were at 60 per cent last week must now be revising them up 80 per cent.

Steve Blitz, chief economist at stockbroker ITG, thinks that a "no" vote will push pressure to compromise back towards Greece's creditors:

By choosing to not opt for remedies that would effectively further diminish growth prospects the onus of compromise has essentially shifted back to the Troika.

What is now to be determined is whether both sides want Greece to remain a euro currency nation.

Sam Theodore, Managing Director at Scope Ratings, the European credit rating agency, expects European banks will hold up in the short-term after a "no" vote:

Funding costs may be affected, especially for peripheral banks, but the credit fundamentals of the large European banks should not materially shake.

However, the situation could worsen in the medium term if the Greek drama continues with no end in sight and political changes in peripheral countries (pressures and threats from the extremes) creates economic chaos. This however is a tail risk which so far is not emerging as a central scenario.

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