Tory peer Lord Ashcroft's latest poll from the marginal constituencies shows a mixed picture for the two main parties and heralds bad news for Ukip. This week, all 10 results come from Conservative held seats where Labour is the principle opponent.
According to the poll, which is a snapshot of public opinion not a prediction, The Conservatives would lose Harrow East, Hove Morecambe & Linsdale and Stockton South to Labour.
Lord Ashcroft polled the same constituencies last year. Only one seat has switched since last time - Harrow East, where a small Tory lead has turned a four-point advantage for Labour. Ed Miliband's party has increased its lead in the three seats where it was ahead last year - Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Stockton South.
If the General Election were held tomorrow, the Tories would hold on to Pendle, Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Loughborough, Kingswood and Gloucester. The constituency of Pudsey would be a tie.
The real shift in these seats, according to Ashcroft, has been the decline of Ukip's share of the vote by up to ten points. Ukip have suffered a small dip in national opinion polls as voters begin to consolidate around the more established parties.
Eagerly awaited by pundits and party hacks Lord Ashcroft's polls have become a regular staple of the Westminster diet. The billionaire peer's last set of polling showed Nick Clegg behind his Labour opponent Oliver Coppard by two points.