Scotland might vote Yes to independence if a new referendum were held tomorrow, a YouGov/Times poll has found.
When “don’t know” answers are excluded, 52 per cent of those polled would vote Yes and 48 per cent know. With don’t knows, the percentages change to 49 for Yes and 45 for No.
The reason for the swing could be that Scots don’t think that either Labour or the Conservatives are likely to make good on their pledges for more devolution. 54 per cent of those polled thought it was unlikely that the parties would deliver on their promises.
Labour has been enduring a torrid week in Scotland, with some pollsters suggesting it would lose as many as 90 per cent of its seats, with a 25 per cent loss seen by some a s a best case scenario.
What is more, 65 per cent of those surveyed thought Scottish Labour “represents the views and interests of Scotland today.” Only 22 per cent said yes.
While all polls run the risk of pixelisation when studied in isolation (examiners lose sight of the bigger picture by looking too closely at one result) these numbers will set alarm bells ringing, especially as the poll also indicated 45 per cent want a second referendum within 10 years.
During the polling for the elections themselves, only two surveys return results favourable to the Yes campaign.