Scottish independence: How likely is it that the Scots will vote Yes?

 
Billy Ehrenberg
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How likely is it that Scotland will vote Yes? (Source: Getty)

How likely is it that Scotland will vote yes?

It's a hard nut to crack as there are so many variables in play, but luckily there are a group of people who work out such probabilities for a living: betting companies.

By looking at the results for 23 different bookies, we can arrive at some kind of conclusion.

There have been some changes since yesterday, and, overall the bookies seem to think a No vote is less likely than it was on Saturday although the Yes camp is still a long way behind.

Here is the Saturday to Tuesday swing:

Here is a table of the latest odds, as posted on Oddschecker at around 8am Tuesday:

Methodology:

As the referendum draws closer we will look to the trends, but for now probabilities will have to do.

By adding the denominator and the numerator together and then dividing them by the denominator, we get the decimal probability that the odds imply, and by multiplying that number by 100 we get a percentage probability.

After a look at the median value across all 22 bookies, we get the following result:

The median is a better measure for the average than the mean as it removes outlying results, although in this sample there weren't any sets of odds that were outlandishly different.

The main thing we can take from this is that no matter what the press and others may think as the opinion polls sway this way and that, the bookies are pretty sure that Scotland will stay part of the UK, even if the public thinks otherwise.

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