House prices have surprised analysts with a slight fall this June. Prices are 0.6 per cent lower, according to the latest Halifax house price index data.
It's only the fourth time that Halifax has recorded a monthly house price in the last year.
And while home sales are some three per cent lower in May, falling below 100,000 for the first time in six months, transaction volumes are still 15 per cent higher than they were in May 2013, according to HMRC data cited by Halifax.
It's worth remembering that this monthly house price data is pretty volatile (check out the "Monthly Change %" column in the table below). Perhaps a better indicator of house price growth is the increase in prices in the last three months on the preceding three months.
By that measure, house prices are up by 2.3 per cent in April to June on the previous three months, January to March. Halifax notes that on this measure price changes have "now remained steady in a narrow range of two to 2.3 per cent since June 2013".
Looking at the annual change in the year to June, prices are now up by 8.8 per cent. Berenberg's chief UK economist, Rob Wood, says that the pace of increase "is not slowing, but it has stabilised" as tighter regulations and the real chance of an interest rate hike take effect.
Berenberg expects that house prices will rise by 10 per cent in 2014 and by 10 per cent again in 2015.