My pick: Waiting for euro-dollar, euro-yen range breaks
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks
With European bond yields falling, equities rising in price, and the euro staying elevated in the wake of the ECB meeting, we can at least surmise that investors aren’t abandoning the region wholesale, even as a negative interest rate regime sweeps in. Market participants are more interested in the developing price environment, as that will ultimately be the determinant of what the ECB does next. June German inflation data at the end of the week, which should show a modest improvement after the May monthly deflation and yearly disinflation figures, should be viewed particularly closely, as the ECB has made clear that any additional easing will only come if the inflation outlook deteriorates further.